Smart Classifiers and Bayesian Inference for Evaluating River Sensitivity to Natural and Human Disturbances: A Data Science Approach

Excessive rates of channel adjustment and riverine sediment export represent societal challenges; impacts include: degraded water quality and ecological integrity, erosion hazards to infrastructure, and compromised public safety. The nonlinear nature of sediment erosion and deposition within a watershed and the variable patterns in riverine sediment export over a defined timeframe of interest are governed by many interrelated factors, including geology, climate and hydrology, vegetation, and land use. Human disturbances to the landscape and river networks have further altered these patterns of water and sediment routing. An enhanced understanding of river sediment sources and dynamics is important for stakeholders, and will become more critical under a nonstationary climate, as sediment yields are expected to increase in regions of the world that will experience increased frequency, persistence, and intensity of storm events. Practical tools are needed to predict sediment erosion, transport and deposition and to characterize sediment sources within a reasonable measure of uncertainty. Water resource scientists and engineers use multidimensional data sets of varying types and quality to answer management-related questions, and the temporal and spatial resolution of these data are growing exponentially with the advent of automated samplers and in situ sensors (i.e., “big data”). Data-driven statistics and classifiers have great utility for representing system complexity and can often be more readily implemented in an adaptive management context than process-based models. Parametric statistics are often of limited efficacy when applied to data of varying quality, mixed types (continuous, ordinal, nominal), censored or sparse data, or when model residuals do not conform to Gaussian distributions. Data-driven machine-learning algorithms and Bayesian statistics have advantages over Frequentist approaches for data reduction and visualization; they allow for non-normal distribution of residuals and greater robustness to outliers. This research applied machine-learning classifiers and Bayesian statistical techniques to multidimensional data sets to characterize sediment source and flux at basin, catchment, and reach scales. These data-driven tools enabled better understanding of: (1) basin-scale spatial variability in concentration-discharge patterns of instream suspended sediment and nutrients; (2) catchment-scale sourcing of suspended sediments; and (3) reach-scale sediment process domains. The developed tools have broad management application and provide insights into landscape drivers of channel dynamics and riverine solute and sediment export

Considering Vermont\u27s Future in a Changing Climate: The First Vermont Climate Assessment

The Vermont Climate Assessment (VCA) paints a vivid picture of a changing climate in Vermont and calls for immediate strategic planning to sustain the social, economic and environmental fabric of our state. The VCA is the first state-scale climate assessment in the country and speaks directly to the impacts of climate change as they pertain to our rural towns, cities and communities, including impacts on Vermont tourism and recreation, agriculture, natural resources and energy

Bridging the Climate Information Gap: A Framework for Engaging Knowledge Brokers and Decision Makers in State Climate Assessments

Large-scale analyses like the National Climate Assessment (NCA) contain a wealth of information critical to national and regional responses to climate change but tend to be insufficiently detailed for action at state or local levels. Many states now engage in assessment processes to meet information needs for local authorities. The goals of state climate assessments (SCAs) should be to provide relevant, actionable information to state and local authorities, and to generate primary sources, build networks and inform stakeholders. To communicate local climate impacts to decision makers, SCAs should express credibility, salience and legitimacy. They can provide information (e.g., case studies, data sets) and connect stakeholders to the NCA and its process. Based on our experience in the Vermont Climate Assessment (VCA), we present a framework to engage decision makers in SCAs using a fluid network of scientific experts and knowledge brokers to conduct subject area prioritization, data analysis and writing. The VCA addressed economic, environmental and social impacts of climate change at local scales to increase resiliency and manage risk. Knowledge brokers communicated VCA findings through their own stakeholder networks. We include a qualitative impact evaluation, and believe our framework for interaction among scientists, knowledge brokers and stakeholders to be an effective structure for SCAs and a transformative experience for students

Exploiting Lunar Natural and Augmented Thermal Environments for Exploration and Research

Near the poles of the Moon, there are permanently shadowed craters whose surface temperatures never exceed 100 K. Craters within craters, commonly referred to as double-shaded craters, have areas where even colder regions exist with, in many cases, temperatures that should never exceed 50 K. The presence of water ice possibly existing in permanently shaded areas of the moon has been hypothesized, discussed, and studied since Watson et al. [1] predicted the possibility of ice on the moon. Ingersoll et al. [2] estimated that the maximum sublimation rate for ice is less than 1 cm per billion years for these types of environments. These potential ice stores have many uses for lunar exploration, potentially providing precious water and rocket fuel for any human exploration or future colonization. The temperatures within these regions offer unprecedented high-vacuum cryogenic environments, which in their natural state could support cryogenic applications such as high-temperature superconductors and associated devices that could be derived. The potential application of naturally occurring cryogenic environments in conjunction with simple methods to augment these environments to achieve even colder temperatures opens the potential use of many additional cryogenic techniques. Besides ice stores and the potential for continuous solar illumination for power production, the unique cryogenic conditions at the lunar poles provide an environment that could reduce the power, weight, and total mass that would have to be carried from the Earth to the Moon for lunar exploration and research

Evaluating Effectiveness of Floodplain Sites along the Lamoille Valley Rail Trail: A Blueprint for Future Rail-River Projects

Floodplains perform many functions of value to society, including conveyance and storage of floodwaters for reduced downstream impacts, sediment and nutrient deposition to support soil formation, and maintenance of pulsed overbank flows to support diverse habitats. When constructed along Vermont’s river valleys in the mid-to-late 1800s, railroads often isolated large areas of natural floodplain, leading to decreased flood and sediment storage, and increased downstream flood stages, sediment and nutrient delivery. Where rail lines have been federally-banked and converted to recreational trails, floodplain reconnection could be achieved by modifying the rail embankment through lowering or installing cross culverts or bridges. With the Lamoille Valley Rail Trail (LVRT) in the Lamoille and Missisquoi River basins as a focal study area, this research has generated tools and planning frameworks for transportation and river managers to identify and prioritize candidate reconnection sites, and to holistically evaluate the benefits of these projects alongside potential impacts to adjacent infrastructure or land uses. Effectiveness of completed and proposed floodplain reconnection sites along the LVRT was evaluated at various spatial scales using a suite of tools. At the watershed and reach scales, a screening protocol was developed, leveraging stream geomorphic assessment data to prioritize potential floodplain reconnection sites for further vetting through field inspection. Ten out of twelve floodplain reconnection sites completed along the LVRT in 2006-2008 were predicted as a priority in a retrospective application of this screening protocol. Low-complexity (Height Above Nearest Drainage) hydraulic modeling results confirmed that most completed projects provided significant increases in the floodplain capacity for floods of 2- to 500-year recurrence intervals. Event-scale monitoring conducted at selected sites has confirmed accumulation of fine sediment and phosphorus. A conservative estimate of a half-ton of phosphorus deposited during one storm on 57 acres highlights the water quality benefits of restoring floodplains. Reconnection alternatives were evaluated in more detail using two-dimensional hydraulic modeling (2D HEC-RAS) at a demonstration reach of the Black Creek near East Fairfield spanning two completed reconnection sites and one proposed site on the LVRT. Modeled reconnection alternatives resulted in modest changes in flooding parameters due to an unexpected, existing degree of cross connection between floodplains of the Black Creek and Elm Brook tributary. Nevertheless, this research project has created a framework for more holistic analysis of floodplain reconnection opportunities at similar sites across Vermont and beyond. The hydraulic modeling products and scenarios developed for this project are being adapted to support analysis and modeling of fine sediment and phosphorus attenuation as the Vermont Agency of Transportation continues to collaborate with the Vermont Agency of Natural Resources and other stakeholders to develop a phosphorus-crediting framework for floodplain reconnection projects

Does stream water composition at sleepers river in vermont reflect dynamic changes in soils during recovery from acidification?

Stream water pH and composition are widely used to monitor ongoing recovery from the deposition of strong anthropogenic acids in many forested headwater catchments in the northeastern United States. However, stream water composition is a function of highly complex and coupled processes, flowpaths, and variations in soil and bedrock composition. Spatial heterogeneity is especially pronounced in headwater catchments with steep topography, potentially limiting stream water composition as an indicator of changes in critical zone (CZ) dynamics during system recovery. To investigate the link between catchment characteristics, landscape position, and stream water composition we used long-term data (1991–2015) from the Sleepers River Research Watershed (SRRW) in northeastern Vermont. We investigated trends with time in stream water and trends with time, depth, and landscape position (upslope, midslope, and riparian zone) in groundwater (GW) and soil solution. We further determined soil elemental composition and mineralogy on archived (1996) and modern (2017) soil samples to assess changes in composition with time. SRRW is inherently well-buffered by calcite in bedrock and till, but soils had become acidified and are now recovering from acidification. Although base cations, especially Ca, decrease progressively with time in GW, riparian soils have become more enriched in Ca, due to a mixture of lateral and vertical transfers. At the same time stream water Ca fluxes increased over the past two decades, likely due to the leaching of (transient) legacy Ca from riparian zones and increased water fluxes. The stream water response therefore reflects the dynamic changes in soil chemistry, flow routing and water inputs

Temperature controls production but hydrology regulates export of dissolved organic carbon at the catchment scale

Lateral carbon flux through river networks is an important and poorly understood component of the global carbon budget. This work investigates how temperature and hydrology control the production and export of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in the Susquehanna Shale Hills Critical Zone Observatory in Pennsylvania, USA. Using field measurements of daily stream discharge, evapotranspiration, and stream DOC concentration, we calibrated the catchment-scale biogeochemical reactive transport model BioRT-Flux-PIHM (Biogeochemical Reactive Transport-Flux-Penn State Integrated Hydrologic Model, BFP), which met the satisfactory standard of a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) value greater than 0.5. We used the calibrated model to estimate and compare the daily DOC production rates (Rp; the sum of the local DOC production rates in individual grid cells) and export rate (Re; the product of the concentration and discharge at the stream outlet, or load). Results showed that daily Rp varied by less than an order of magnitude, primarily depending on seasonal temperature. In contrast, daily Re varied by more than 3 orders of magnitude and was strongly associated with variation in discharge and hydrological connectivity. In summer, high temperature and evapotranspiration dried and disconnected hillslopes from the stream, driving Rp to its maximum but Re to its minimum. During this period, the stream only exported DOC from the organic-poor groundwater and from organic-rich soil water in the swales bordering the stream. The DOC produced accumulated in hillslopes and was later flushed out during the wet and cold period (winter and spring) when Re peaked as the stream reconnected with uphill and Rp reached its minimum. The model reproduced the observed concentration-discharge (C-Q) relationship characterized by an unusual flushing-dilution pattern with maximum concentrations at intermediate discharge, indicating three end-members of source waters. A sensitivity analysis indicated that this nonlinearity was caused by shifts in the relative contribution of different source waters to the stream under different flow conditions. At low discharge, stream water reflected the chemistry of organic-poor groundwater; at intermediate discharge, stream water was dominated by the organic-rich soil water from swales; at high discharge, the stream reflected uphill soil water with an intermediate DOC concentration. This pattern persisted regardless of the DOC production rate as long as the contribution of deeper groundwater flow remained low (\u3c18 % of the streamflow). When groundwater flow increased above 18 %, comparable amounts of groundwater and swale soil water mixed in the stream and masked the high DOC concentration from swales. In that case, the C-Q patterns switched to a flushing-only pattern with increasing DOC concentration at high discharge. These results depict a conceptual model that the catchment serves as a producer and storage reservoir for DOC under hot and dry conditions and transitions into a DOC exporter under wet and cold conditions. This study also illustrates how different controls on DOC production and export - temperature and hydrological flow paths, respectively - can create temporal asynchrony at the catchment scale. Future warming and increasing hydrological extremes could accentuate this asynchrony, with DOC production occurring primarily during dry periods and lateral export of DOC dominating in major storm event

The Science Performance of JWST as Characterized in Commissioning

This paper characterizes the actual science performance of the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST), as determined from the six month commissioning period. We summarize the performance of the spacecraft, telescope, science instruments, and ground system, with an emphasis on differences from pre-launch expectations. Commissioning has made clear that JWST is fully capable of achieving the discoveries for which it was built. Moreover, almost across the board, the science performance of JWST is better than expected; in most cases, JWST will go deeper faster than expected. The telescope and instrument suite have demonstrated the sensitivity, stability, image quality, and spectral range that are necessary to transform our understanding of the cosmos through observations spanning from near-earth asteroids to the most distant galaxies.Comment: 5th version as accepted to PASP; 31 pages, 18 figures; https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1538-3873/acb29

The James Webb Space Telescope Mission

Twenty-six years ago a small committee report, building on earlier studies, expounded a compelling and poetic vision for the future of astronomy, calling for an infrared-optimized space telescope with an aperture of at least $4m$. With the support of their governments in the US, Europe, and Canada, 20,000 people realized that vision as the $6.5m$ James Webb Space Telescope. A generation of astronomers will celebrate their accomplishments for the life of the mission, potentially as long as 20 years, and beyond. This report and the scientific discoveries that follow are extended thank-you notes to the 20,000 team members. The telescope is working perfectly, with much better image quality than expected. In this and accompanying papers, we give a brief history, describe the observatory, outline its objectives and current observing program, and discuss the inventions and people who made it possible. We cite detailed reports on the design and the measured performance on orbit.Comment: Accepted by PASP for the special issue on The James Webb Space Telescope Overview, 29 pages, 4 figure

Revue trimestrielle de l'éducation

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